Dominic Basulto, The Motley Fool
6 min read
In This Article:
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In a base case scenario, XRP regains its all-time high of $4 from seven years ago.
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In a bull case scenario, XRP soars, fueled by new innovation and new growth opportunities.
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In a bear case scenario, XRP ends up trading for mere pennies, as competitors surpass it.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is up an eye-popping 1,100% during the past five years. So where will the crypto be five years from now? The most likely scenario is that XRP will double in value and reclaim its all-time high of $4 from seven years ago.
However, there are plenty of other scenarios. In a bull case scenario, XRP could hit $12.50 by the year 2028 (it now trades for about $2.10). In a bear case scenario, XRP could collapse to zero. That's a wide range of outcomes, so let's take a look at each one.
In order to double in value and hit a price of $4 within five years, XRP will need an annualized growth rate of 15%. That's certainly within the realm of possibility, given that XRP has several key catalysts already in place.
The first catalyst is the probable launch of new spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which many expect will be approved by regulators in fourth-quarter 2025. These new ETFs will open up XRP for large institutional investors. Theoretically, they should lead to a wave of new money flowing into XRP, much as we saw with the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Moreover, XRP is coming off a major regulatory win. Earlier this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) agreed to drop its long-running case against Ripple Labs, the company behind the XRP token. This is the direct result of the new pro-crypto approach of the Trump administration and its shakeup of the SEC. This explains why the price of XRP suddenly spiked in value at the end of last year: The market was already pricing in the effect of the SEC dropping its case against Ripple.
If XRP can get back to business as usual, it could grow at a target rate of 15% per year. Ripple operates a highly regarded cross-border payment network, and XRP is the token that powers this network. So it's really just a case of new institutional adoption and lining up new users for this payment network.
But let's think bigger. After all, most XRP investors would not be satisfied with "business as usual." On social media, XRP price forecasts are usually sky-high. Popular search engine searches include "Will XRP Hit $10,000?"
These impossibly high price forecasts are based on one basic assumption: The XRP payment network will eventually power broad swathes of the global financial system. Indeed, Ripple Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse recently suggested that one goal is to disrupt the legacy SWIFT payments network. If SWIFT's transaction activity shifts to XRP, it could lead to a huge surge in XRP's price.
