Summary

How is it July already? The Fourth of July falls on Friday, which bumps the jobs report up to Thursday this month. The stock market is closed for a half-day on Thursday and all day on Friday. Last week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit all-time highs. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.8%, the S&P 500 rose 3.4%, and the Nasdaq popped 4.3%. So far this year, the Dow is higher by 3%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have both gained 5%. On the economic calendar, the week is short but busy. Job Openings, Construction Spending, and ISM Manufacturing data comes out on Tuesday; the ADP private payrolls employment report is on Wednesday; and the June Nonfarm Payrolls report and the U.S. Trade Deficit will be reported on Thursday. The Economic Call of the Week from Argus' Chief Economist Chris Graja is the ISM Services Index. Chris expects this indicator to eke back to expansionary territory. We see the headline PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) above the critical level of 50 for June, rising to 50.5 from 49.9 in May. The consensus is 50.4. Like the jobs report, the Services Index will be released on Thursday ahead of the holiday. We watch this index very closely because the services sector is huge, representing 47% of GDP, and there are very few indicators for services (relative to a multitude for trade, employment, and manufacturing). This services report will have additional importance because the category was up just 0.6% in the final revision of 1Q GDP, with both recreation services, food services, and accommodations declining. Services were up 3.0% in 4Q24. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed G