Anusuya Lahiri

Fri, May 30, 2025, 8:38 PM2 min read

International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker expects global smartphone shipments to grow 0.6% year over year to 1.24 billion in 2025.

IDC cut the forecast from 2.3% growth in February due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility, and macroeconomic challenges leading to a slowdown in consumer spending.

Growth will remain in the low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones, as per IDC.

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Despite the increased tensions, the U.S. and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year, according to the report.

China is forecast to grow by 3% Y/Y, driven by government subsidies.

In contrast, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, the overall economic slowdown, and the lack of subsidies for most of its models.

However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline, the report stated.

According to Anthony Scarsella of IDC, the U.S. Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2017, due to increased uncertainty and tariff-related price increases.

Recent signals from the U.S. administration regarding potential tariff hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the U.S. further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs, according to Nabila Popal of IDC. However, India and Vietnam will likely remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production.

Still, additional tariffs of 20% to 30% on U.S.-bound smartphones could pose a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.

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