Editor OilPrice.com
6 min read
In This Article:
The upstream shale oil and gas sector has been written off by investors thanks to a 30% decline in oil prices since the first of the year. From near $80 in mid-January, tariff-led demand fears have overcome supply fears, and the price of WTI-the benchmark crude for most U.S. companies, to the upper $ 50s. Even a rebound into the low $60s has not yet assuaged these concerns, leaving them worried about their ability to generate cash for debt service and shareholder returns. That’s the fear. What is the reality?
We now have a full quarter in the bank for these companies at subdued oil prices, and the message is becoming pretty clear. The upstream sector, while somewhat constrained in capital expenditure allocation—many companies are slowing their growth plans —is doing fine and generating more than adequate free cash to cover operational expenses, debt, and shareholder returns.
This means there is an opportunity for investors to make long-term bets in these companies at fire-sale prices. The MacroMicro chart shown below supports this notion. Multiple compression has reduced the Energy sector's S&P weighting from approximately 13% in 2011 to just 3% today.
We think the current all-time high reached in April of 13,400 mm BOPD suggests this shrinkage in weighting is not reflective of the true value these companies bring to our economy. That being the case, we will present a snapshot of the Q-1 metrics of some of our favorite shale drillers for investment at present levels.
The shale macro
We are about 15 years into a complete upheaval in global oil production dynamics, as noted in the EIA graphic below. You can see that, commencing in 2012, the upward slope that had begun in 2008 with early fracking operations took a sharp increase that didn’t abate until the latter part of 2023, at around 13,000 mm BOPD. Initially driven by a rapid increase in the rig count, oil shocks in 2014 and then in 2020, led to drillers’ re-evaluation of the wisdom of growth at any cost. The COVID-induced oil crash of 2020 led to a profound shift in how managers in these companies were compensated. Incentives that had previously rewarded double-digit annual growth in production and attainment of ESG goals were shifted to value creation for shareholders.
Now, after learning to drill longer laterals, increase the number of frac stages, pump higher sand concentrations, and use artificial intelligence to improve efficiency, the industry has been able to produce more and more oil and gas with fewer rigs and frac spreads. Since 2022, the numbers of each have declined by about 30-35% respectively. Some of this reduction is also due to the recent M&A cycle, which has reduced the E&P count in an effort to consolidate premium drilling locations in shale plays. Money not spent on services to grow production is money that goes directly to the driller’s bottom line and enables them to run profitable businesses at lower oil and gas prices.
