Oleksandr Pylypenko
10 min read
June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending up +0.15% this morning as cash trading resumed after the Juneteenth holiday, with investors digesting the White House’s signal that President Trump would delay a decision to launch strikes against Iran.
The conflict between Israel and Iran entered its second week, with Israel hitting more nuclear sites in Iran on Thursday and warning that its strikes could bring down Tehran’s leadership, as both sides awaited a decision from U.S. President Donald Trump on whether to join the offensive. On Thursday afternoon, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that President Trump would decide within two weeks whether the U.S. would participate in strikes against Iran, while noting there was a “substantial chance” of reaching a negotiated settlement. The news alleviated immediate concerns of U.S. military escalation, providing some relief to investors.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. In a post-meeting statement, officials said that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated.” Policymakers also released updated quarterly rate projections and economic forecasts, lowering their estimates for economic growth this year while projecting higher inflation and unemployment. While the median projection for two rate cuts this year remained unchanged, officials now anticipate fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027.
At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his view that the central bank was “well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Powell also stated that rising tariffs are likely to push prices higher, cautioning that their impact on inflation could be more persistent.
“They are clearly in wait-and-see mode. They are sitting on their hands, waiting to see if tariffs increase inflation or the jobs market starts to falter, and whichever part of their dual mandate is impacted first will likely guide whichever direction they take,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
In Wednesday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Mastercard (MA) slid more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Visa (V) fell over -4% to lead losers in the Dow amid continued worries about the impact of stablecoins on credit-card issuers. Also, Zoetis (ZTS) slid more than -4% after Stifel downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. In addition, La-Z-Boy (LZB) fell over -1% after the furniture maker posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS and issued soft FQ1 revenue guidance. On the bullish side, Coinbase (COIN) surged more than +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Senate passed the Genius Act, legislation aimed at regulating stablecoins, and the company introduced Coinbase Payments, a stablecoin payments stack for commerce platforms.
