TipRanks
3 min read
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Walmart (WMT) is scheduled to report results of its first quarter before the market open on Thursday, May 15, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am EDT. What to watch for:
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GUIDANCE: After delivering what the company called a “strong” fourth quarter, Walmart forecast fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.50-$2.60, on revenue up 3%-4% and adjusted operating income up 3.5%-5.5%. At the time, analysts expected EPS of $2.76, but they currently expected EPS of $2.61 on revenue of $701.89B. For the first quarter, Walmart predicted adjusted EPS of 57c-58c on revenue up 3%-4% and adjusted operating income up 0.5%-2%. Analysts currently expect EPS of 58c on revenue of $164.43B.
The reaffirmation of Q1 and fiscal 2026 guidance at April’s ICM reflects the durability of the business model, continued share gains across income cohorts, and execution on higher-margin initiatives, Raymond James said in April. Citi reiterated Walmart as a top pick following the company’s investor day. “Though the macro backdrop may be changing by the hour, the WMT story is steady,” the analyst told investors in a research note. Meanwhile, Walmart’s reiterated 2026 guidance reinforced RBC Capital’s view that the company is among the best positioned in the space to manage through potential consumer softness and/or incremental costs, though the magnitude of over-delivery that was initially baked into RBC’s model feels less likely in the current environment. Morgan Stanley said it expects “modest” upside in Q1, with FY26 guidance potentially reflecting a wider range of outcomes.
LIKELY TO REITERATE GUIDANCE: UBS thinks Walmart is one of the few retailers that has the prospect of generating durable and predictable earnings the market is looking for, which should lead to outperformance for the stock. The firm thinks Walmart will reiterate its FY26 outlook after it was maintained at Investment Community Meeting in April. For Q1, UBS thinks Walmart maintained its “healthy” comp momentum, with its comp trends improving as the quarter progressed, and “probably” would have exceeded its initial Q1 EPS outlook if it had not experienced the $200M of additional expense related to casualty claims.
TARIFFS: Bernstein said on May 5 that it is assuming 145% Chinese tariffs and “Liberation Day” tariffs on other markets. Bernstein expects retailers to work with suppliers to lower product costs by 20%-25% by lowering prices, changing product spec, and/or switching suppliers. It then expects retailers to pass on the remaining to consumers, which could drive average prices up by low single digits to high teens percentage and negatively impact volume and traffic. Such tariff impacts could translate into double digits EPS downside, the firm said.
