Rich Asplund

Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 7:07 AM6 min read

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.40%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.38%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.27%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.34%.

Stock indexes are climbing today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs, and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 4-1/4 month high.  Positive trade news is boosting stocks today with President Trump's July 9 deadline fast approaching.  Progress is being made in trade negotiations with China and the European Union.  Also, trade talks are back on with Canada after the country withdrew a digital services tax, and India's and Japan's trade teams extended their stay in Washington to iron out new trade deals.

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Negotiations over President Trump's spending and tax bill are continuing, with the dollar index sliding to a new 3-1/4-year low today, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the measure would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over the next ten years.

M&A activity is also supportive for stocks after Home Depot announced it has acquired GMS Inc. for $4.3 billion and AbbVie agreed to buy Capstan Therapeutics for $2.1 billion.

Better-than-expected economic news from China is supportive of global economic growth prospects. The China June manufacturing PMI rose +0.2 to 49.7, stronger than expectations of 49.6.  Also, the June non-manufacturing PMI rose +0.2 to 50.5, stronger than expectations of no change at 50.3.

On the negative side for stocks is the upcoming earnings season, which begins next week. Bloomberg Intelligence data show that the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 companies is for a rise of 2.8% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years.  Also, only six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.

During this holiday-shortened week, the markets will look for additional trade and tariff news along with progress in the passage of President Trump's tax bill.  On Tuesday, the June ISM manufacturing index is expected to climb by +0.2 to 48.7.  Also, on Tuesday.  May JOLTS job openings are expected to fall -91,000 to 7.3 million.  Finally on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell participates in a panel discussing monetary policy with BOE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde, and BOJ Governor Ueda.  On Wednesday, the June ADP employment change is expected to rise by +90,000.  On Thursday, Jun nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb by +113,000 and the June employment rate is expected to tick up +0.1 to 4.3%.  Also, June average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb +5,000 to 241,000, and May factory orders are expected to jump +8.1% m/m.  Finally, the Jun ISM services index is expected to climb +0.7 to 50.6.