Jing Pan
7 min read
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Waves of tariffs from President Donald Trump — despite a temporary pause on many — has unleashed chaos across global markets, reigniting trade tensions and rattling investors. But billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio says the real storm is still to come.
On April 7, in a lengthy social media post, Dalio argued that the recent tariff drama is merely a symptom of deeper, structural problems.
“We are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders,” he wrote.
Dalio outlined five forces he described as reshaping the global landscape.
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1. The global monetary order
Dalio said the global economic order is breaking down due to unsustainable debt and deep imbalances between debtor nations like the U.S. and creditor nations like China. As these imbalances unwind, Dalio warned the current monetary order will be forced to change in “big disruptive ways”, with major consequences for capital markets and the broader economy.
2. The political order
Dalio sees the political order of democracies breaking down under the weight of what he calls “huge gaps” in people’s education, income and opportunity levels, as well as values. He said history shows this kind of environment often gives rise to “strong autocratic leaders” — especially when paired with economic and market turmoil.
3. The global power structure
Dalio was blunt on this point: “The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power (the U.S.) that dictates the order that other countries follow is over.” He argued it’s being replaced by a “unilateral, power-rules” approach. While the U.S. remains the most powerful nation, Dalio said it is now operating under a more self-interested, “America First” framework.
4, 5. Nature and technology
Dalio added that “acts of nature” — such as floods and pandemics — are becoming more disruptive, while rapid advances in technology — such as artificial intelligence — are impacting “all aspects of life, including the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international order, and the costs of acts of nature.”
