Vince Golle and Craig Stirling

Sat, May 31, 2025, 1:00 PM8 min read

(Bloomberg) -- The pace of US hiring probably slowed in May, with employers focusing on containing costs as households become a bit more guarded and businesses reconsidered investment plans against a backdrop of shifting trade policy.

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Economists see payrolls rising by 125,000 after job growth in March and April exceeded projections, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey. That would leave the average over the past three months tracking a still-solid 162,000. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.

Employers seeking clarity around the White House’s trade policy have instead been greeted with frequent adjustments to timelines and import duty schedules. President Donald Trump is deploying tariffs as a way to reverse imbalances, spark long-term investment in the US, and spur the domestic output of critical goods and materials.

Meanwhile, economic activity has settled back, with confidence surveys hinting at more modest consumer spending in coming months. Auto sales figures from Ward’s Intelligence on Tuesday are expected to show purchases eased in May for a second month.

Concerned that revenue will suffer, companies are growing more conscious about cost-saving efforts that risk culminating in slower labor demand. The jobs figures on Friday will follow a Tuesday report on vacancies. The median projection calls for a decline in April to 7.1 million job openings, the fewest since the end of 2020.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Our preliminary forecast range for May nonfarm payrolls is 60k-130k, with the central tendency clustering around 90k – lower than the consensus of 130k at the time of writing. We think one sector — leisure and hospitality — accounted for most of the weakness, as subpar international tourism and a pullback in government travel led to a slump in demand. However, construction, and transportation and warehousing – two sectors that typically provide the next most-important seasonal job growth in May – are holding up.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins. For full analysis, click here

Federal Reserve officials are likely to take the labor market reports in stride as they too await clarity on how trade and tax policy will impact the economy and inflation.

Investors will parse comments this coming week from Fed governors Lisa Cook and Adriana Kugler. Governor Christopher Waller also discusses the economic outlook on Sunday. The Fed will also issue its Beige Book on anecdotal economic conditions across the country.