Can The US-China Tariff De-Escalation Send Bitcoin, Ethereum To New Highs?
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The United States and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in their ongoing trade dispute, significantly scaling back reciprocal tariffs and establishing a structured negotiation framework.
What Happened: According to market analysts, this shift has removed a major source of tail risk and could drive a broad-based rebound in risk assets, including U.S. equities, the dollar and altcoins.
Under the terms of the provisional agreement announced Monday, the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, comprising a 10% base tariff consistent with other trading partners and an additional 20% specifically targeting fentanyl-related concerns.
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However, officials hinted that the total tariff burden could decline to just 10% pending progress in fentanyl negotiations.
On the Chinese side, tariffs on U.S. goods have been immediately reduced to 10%, and all non-tariff barriers, including rare earth export bans and aviation restrictions, have been lifted.
"This is a critical development," said Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen. "It effectively removes the tail risk of sudden re-escalation during the agreed 90-day negotiation window."
Barthere added that assets previously underperforming, such as altcoins, U.S. equities, and the dollar, now appear positioned for a catch-up rally.
"Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been the clear outperformer so far... but with the latest Bessent and Greer announcements, I expect broader asset classes to begin catching up as the risk environment improves."
The tone of negotiations has also shifted.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized a cooperative framework, noting that the two sides have "an established process, a mechanism, and clearly mandated negotiators," marking a contrast to the volatility of past talks.
Both governments highlighted "common interests" and explicitly rejected the idea of economic decoupling.
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Why It Matters: Markets responded swiftly. U.S. one-year yields rose nearly 10 basis points, suggesting a repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and reduced concerns over recession-linked rate cuts.
While tariffs on key sectors like autos and steel remain, experts suggest the ongoing negotiations may shift toward company-level solutions in sensitive areas such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
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