Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on MGM Resorts International (MGM) on MileHighMonk’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MGM. MGM Resorts International (MGM)'s share was trading at $33.39 as of 10th June. MGM’s trailing and forward P/E were 14.5 and 14.88 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A bright and luxurious casino resort illuminated in the evening skyline.
MGM Resorts International presents a diversified investment case rooted in dominant assets, global expansion, and disciplined capital returns. At its core is Las Vegas, where MGM commands a 40% market share with iconic properties like Bellagio and MGM Grand. Over half of Las Vegas' revenue is non-gaming, driven by hospitality, conventions, and entertainment, with partnerships like Marriott fueling room demand.
MGM’s regional casinos add stability, generating over $1.1 billion in annual EBITDAR with low capital intensity. In Macau, MGM has doubled its market share to 16% since 2018, riding mass-market recovery and expanding premium offerings, supported by a $2 billion loan for growth and refinancing. Japan represents a future growth engine, with MGM’s $10 billion Osaka resort projected to generate $3.6 billion in annual revenue.
Meanwhile, BetMGM, a 50/50 venture with Entain, has captured a leading position in U.S. iGaming and online sports betting, producing $424 million in 2024 EBITDA. With a potential EBITDA of $500 million and a conservative 10x multiple, MGM’s stake could be worth $2.5 billion. Despite these high-quality assets, MGM trades at a discount to peers across both P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics, further distorted by its lease-heavy, asset-light model that inflates leverage optics.
Still, net debt excluding leases is only ~$4 billion. The company has repurchased nearly $9 billion of stock since 2021, cutting share count by 45%, and continues aggressively buying back shares under a new $2 billion program. Backed by IAC’s 23% stake and long-term conviction, MGM is viewed as a “forever asset” with near- and long-term catalysts underappreciated by the market.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on MGM Resorts (MGM) by David on Substack, which emphasized the company’s asset-light transformation, iconic Las Vegas assets, and aggressive buybacks driving per-share value. The stock price has appreciated by roughly 27% since the coverage in April 2025. MileHighMonk expands on this view, highlighting MGM’s global growth via Macau and Japan, BetMGM’s digital upside, and valuation gaps versus peers despite strong capital returns.
