Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) on wallstreetbets subreddit by KiertheGuard. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ACDC. ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC)'s share was trading at $9.15 as of 13th June. ACDC’s trailing and forward P/E were 93.91 and 16.16 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A large oil and natural gas drilling rig in operation, surrounded by a sprawling desert landscape.
ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) is being positioned by bullish investors as a high-upside, speculative play on a potential spike in oil prices, particularly in response to escalating geopolitical tensions. The thesis rests on the premise that the oil market is severely underestimating the risk of a disruption to global supply, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz or an Israeli strike on Kharg Island, which could send crude prices soaring to $120–$130 per barrel.
Polymarket data estimates a 34% chance of such a disruption, and if realized, oil prices could spike dramatically. While many energy stocks offer exposure to oil, ProFrac stands out for its asymmetric payoff profile. Its business model is highly levered to oil prices, turning meaningfully profitable only above $80 WTI, with earnings surging as oil rises toward $100+.
What truly distinguishes ACDC, however, is its capital structure: with 93% insider ownership and only 11 million shares in the float, of which over 36% are short, primed for a violent squeeze in any oil rally. The scarcity of tradable shares combined with algorithmic buying behavior in energy names could trigger a runaway move if oil prices suddenly surge.
While the company is illiquid and highly speculative, this setup makes ACDC a standout candidate for a potential multi-bagger, with some bulls estimating a share price of $20–$30 if oil reaches $120+. Options pricing already reflects explosive potential, and for risk-tolerant investors seeking outsized returns from macro dislocations, ProFrac offers a rare and extreme upside scenario—albeit with meaningful downside if oil remains rangebound.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on ProFrac (ACDC) by Unemployed Value Degen in February 2025, where it was framed as a vertically integrated hydraulic fracturing company poised to rebound from a cyclical downturn through cost control, aggressive acquisitions, and leverage to natural gas infrastructure growth. The stock price has appreciated by approximately 30% since the coverage. KiertheGuard adds a speculative macro layer, emphasizing ProFrac’s extreme upside potential in the event of a geopolitical oil price spike.
