Argus
•
Jun 30, 2025
Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term
Summary
Last week was another strong period for stocks, as all the mega-cap indices rallied to all-time highs (ATHs). That includes the S&P 500 (SPX), S&P 100 (OEX), Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). As we have said, ATHs are bullish -- until the last one. For the week, the SPX rose 3.4% and has advanced in seven of the past 12 weeks. The OEX jumped 3.9%, the XLG added 4.1%, the Nasdaq rallied 4.3%, and the QQQ popped 4.2%. Sector strength again was led by mega-cap tech, with Communication Services up 5%, Information Technology 4.4%, and Consumer Discretionary 4%. Big IT winners were by GOOGL, META, NFLX, NVDA, AVGO, and TSM, while Discretionary rose due to smaller issues. Financial and Industrials were also strong for the week. We were asked an interesting question last week. Is it bullish if we get a "golden cross" with the SPX already at ATHs? When the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day, it is called a "golden cross," which is very close to happening. When the 50-day falls below the 200-day, as it did in April 2025, it is a "death cross." Going back to 1980, the buy signals (regardless of whether the index was at an ATH or far from it), h
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