Mohit Oberoi

Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 9:18 AM4 min read

Nike stock (NKE) rallied over 15% on Friday, June 27, after the company’s fiscal Q4 2025 earnings came in much better than feared. Management also sounded optimistic on the outlook as the turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill takes shape. In this article, we’ll discuss whether Nike, which is still in the red for the year despite last week’s rally, is out of the woods.

To begin with, let’s dive into Nike’s Q4 earnings. The company’s revenues fell 12% year-over-year to $11.1 billion, but the results were better than the company’s guidance, which called for a sales decline in the “mid-teens range, albeit at the low end.” The number also came in ahead of $10.72 billion that analysts were expecting.

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The company’s earnings per share (EPS) fell 86% year-over-year to $0.14 but came in $0.01 higher than Street estimates. Hill admitted that while the Q4 results were in line with the company’s expectations, they “are not up to the Nike standards.”

The company expects sales in the current quarter to fall “mid-single digits” and gross margins to contract between 350-425 basis points. Nike did not provide guidance for the current fiscal year due to the tariff uncertainty. However, pointing to its pipeline of products, Hill said, “I see a clear path to recovery ahead.” He added, “From here, we expect our business results to improve. It’s time to turn the page.”

Here are some of the other key takeaways from Nike’s Q4 report

• Recovery in China Will Take Longer: During the earnings call, Hill admitted that compared to other regions in the Asia Pacific and Latin America (APLA) region, recovery in China will “take longer due to the unique characteristics of the marketplace.” China has been a difficult market for U.S. companies, whether they focus on cars, fast food, or smartphones.

• Tariff Impact: Nike said that the current tariff regime would add an incremental $1 billion to its gross costs in the current fiscal year. That number, however, does not account for the price hikes that it recently announced. It is also exclusive of the changes in sourcing strategy as the company plans to reduce the share of Chinese imports from 16% to “high-single digits” by the end of this fiscal year.

• Turnaround Costs Have Peaked: CFO Matt Friend said that Q4 “reflected the largest financial impact” from its Win Now turnaround plan. The company expects the pressure on the top line and margins to start moderating, but sees another 75-basis point of margin impact this fiscal year. Notably, while the company is cutting costs as part of the turnaround, Friend said that the company’s “priority right now continues to be reigniting brand momentum through sport and stabilizing” the business.

• Inventory Liquidation: Nike expects to continue liquidating excess deliveries in the first half of the current fiscal year and is targeting a “healthy and clean market” by the end of the fiscal year.

• Wholesale Strategy Is Paying Off: Nike’s pivot to wholesale sales is paying off, and its holiday order book is higher compared to the previous year in North America, APLA, and Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).