Carolane De Palmas

Sun, Jun 15, 2025, 2:13 AM4 min read

Gold has firmly reasserted itself as a strategic anchor in the global financial system, now ranking second only to the US dollar—and ahead of the euro—in terms of official reserve holdings measured at market value. This structural shift, outlined in the European Central Bank’s latest report on the international role of the euro, underscores how price dynamics, central bank behavior, and geopolitical realignment have collectively elevated gold’s monetary relevance.

In 2024, gold prices surged by 30%, followed by another 30% year-to-date in 2025, briefly reaching an all-time nominal high of $3,500 per troy ounce in April. This sharp rally signals more than just a technical or inflation-driven cycle—it reflects a broader revaluation of gold’s role amid rising global uncertainty.

One of the more recent illustrations of this shift came with the spike in gold futures following a military flare-up between Israel and Iran, confirming gold’s renewed function as a geopolitical hedge.

While traditionally influenced by real interest rates and inflation expectations, gold has increasingly decoupled from such monetary drivers. Between 2008 and early 2022, the negative correlation between gold prices and real yields made the metal a reliable hedge in low-rate or high-inflation environments. Yet since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this pattern has weakened significantly. Despite rising or stable real yields, gold has continued to climb, suggesting that its valuation is being driven by forces beyond rate expectations.

Non-monetary factors have now taken center stage—especially geopolitical risk, reserve diversification, and sanctions avoidance. This transformation reflects a recalibration by central banks and investors alike, who are positioning gold not only as an inflation buffer, but also as a politically neutral store of value. In an era of increasing geopolitical fragmentation and weaponized finance, gold’s lack of counterparty risk has made it uniquely attractive.

The implications are far-reaching. If gold is no longer primarily priced off opportunity cost or real yields, then conventional valuation models understate its defensive strength. Instead, gold is behaving more like a global insurance asset, valued for its sovereignty-proof liquidity and its historical reliability in times of crisis.

The most significant force behind gold’s recent ascent is central banks’ purchases. In 2024, central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold—double the prior decade’s average—pushing global official holdings to 36,000 tonnes, near the 1965 Bretton Woods peak of 38,000 tonnes. This unprecedented accumulation lifted global official holdings to 36,000 tonnes, approaching the historic peak of 38,000 tonnes reached in 1965 during the Bretton Woods era.