Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, SAB de CV on Chit Chat Stocks Newsletter’s Substack by Brett Schafer. In this article, we will summarize the bull’s thesis on OMAB. Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, SAB de C.V. 's share was trading at $100.43 as of June 20th. OMAB’s trailing and forward P/E ratios were 18.00 and 16.61, respectively, according to Yahoo Finance.
A daytime aerial view of an airport bustling with planes and staff.
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) presents a rare opportunity to invest in a government-backed monopoly with high free cash flow, robust growth prospects, and shareholder-friendly capital returns. OMAB operates 13 Mexican airports under a concession with the government that extends to 2048, with the potential for a 50-year renewal. Its major asset is Monterrey Airport, a growing hub amid worsening congestion in Mexico City, which cannot expand due to government restrictions.
As a result, OMAB is expected to capture increasing air traffic and new international routes, including recent additions from Tokyo and Seoul. Its business model resembles a regulated utility, where every five years a Master Development Program (MDP) allows fee increases tied to infrastructure investments. With the next MDP taking effect in 2026, adjusted fees are likely to boost revenues, especially as inflation and capex reset the pricing baseline.
OMAB enjoys 70% operating margins (excluding construction revenue), high ROIC, and virtually no competition, benefiting from rising passenger volumes and growing commercial revenue at its airports. As Mexico's middle class grows and reshoring accelerates manufacturing—particularly in Monterrey—demand for both business and leisure air travel is set to rise. The stock trades at just 10x free cash flow and offers substantial dividend yields, with expectations of $75 in dividends over five years and $200 over a decade.
Current headwinds from engine recalls and geopolitical worries are temporary. With a history of strong capital returns and durable economics, OMAB stands out as a low-risk, high-upside investment in the Mexican growth story.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, SAB de C.V. (OMAB) by Chit Chat Stocks in January 2025, which highlighted Monterrey’s strategic importance and Mexico’s reshoring-driven air traffic growth. The company’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 33% since our coverage. Brett Schafer shares a similar view but emphasizes the MDP-driven fee hikes and long-term dividend potential.
