Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on CorMedix Inc. (CRMD) on Archetype Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CRMD. CorMedix Inc. (CRMD)'s share was trading at $14.86 as of 12th June. CRMD’s trailing and forward P/E were 59.44 and 22.88 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A close up photograph of a vial of a new biotechnological drug candidate in development.
CorMedix offers a compelling, asymmetric investment opportunity built not on speculative biotech development but on a proven, FDA-approved product addressing a large, costly clinical problem. Its flagship therapy, DefenCath, is designed to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in dialysis patients—a condition that afflicts up to 25% of patients with central venous catheters and costs the healthcare system an average of $63,000 per case. DefenCath is a taurolidine-based catheter lock solution paired with heparin, optimized for U.S. dialysis protocols, and inspired by the success of Europe’s TauroLock.
Following a clinical trial showing a 71% reduction in infections, DefenCath received FDA approval in November 2023 and will begin outpatient rollout under Medicare’s TDAPA program in July 2024.
CorMedix has already secured contracts with four of the five largest dialysis organizations, collectively covering about 70% of its estimated 170,000-patient TAM. While only one has begun implementation, broader rollout is expected imminently.
Even in an ultra-conservative worst-case scenario—assuming just 10,000 patients, a steep price erosion to $50 per vial, and zero Medicare carve-out support—the stock still supports a terminal value double its current market cap. This pricing scenario assumes clinics absorb all costs once TDAPA ends, despite a strong precedent for Medicare or Medicare Advantage carving out innovative therapies that lower systemic costs. With every prevented infection potentially saving tens of thousands in hospitalizations, DefenCath at $250 per vial could remain economically attractive, especially as Medicare Advantage—which covers both dialysis and hospitalizations—grows in share.
CorMedix is proactively preparing for post-TDAPA reimbursement negotiations, anchored by a real-world evidence (RWE) study tracking over 2,000 patients at US Renal Care. Results, expected in July, will assess reductions in infections, antibiotic use, hospitalizations, and mortality—data that could directly support pricing sustainability and Medicare carve-outs.
Importantly, DefenCath benefits from regulatory exclusivity through 2033 and faces no FDA-approved taurolidine-based competitors in the U.S., giving it a unique market position. Like sugammadex before it, which overcame regulatory delays to become a U.S. standard-of-care after European success, DefenCath is positioned to transform a proven European antimicrobial strategy into a U.S. standard with substantial commercial potential.
