Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) on TripleS Special Situations’s Substack by Tiny Stock Ninja. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NAK. Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK)'s share was trading at $1.2 as of 4th June.
A large open-pit mining site, its machinery providing a long-term supply of copper.
Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) offers a uniquely asymmetric investment opportunity at the intersection of geopolitics, resource sovereignty, and severe market mispricing. The Pebble Project—one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposits—has long been stalled by regulatory hurdles, but the return of the Trump administration has radically altered its strategic outlook.
Recent executive orders prioritize domestic mineral independence and list copper and gold as critical to national security, with directives to expedite permitting. These policy shifts directly benefit dormant projects like Pebble, especially as the U.S. now imports over 45% of its copper.
Simultaneously, the global copper supply is entering a structural deficit, exacerbated by decades of underinvestment and geopolitical tensions, including tariffs cutting off U.S. access to Chinese rare earths. Legally, Northern Dynasty has advanced its position through persistent appeals and a well-documented challenge to both the EPA veto and Army Corps denial, citing contradictions with the Final Environmental Impact Statement, which found no measurable impact on local fisheries.
These appeals align with the administration’s deregulatory momentum, especially in Alaska, where a broad pro-development agenda is unfolding. The Pebble resource base is staggering, with measured and inferred deposits totaling tens of billions of pounds of copper and millions of ounces of gold, carrying a gross market value exceeding $400 billion.
At a current market cap of just $660 million, the upside is massive, with after-tax profits projected in the tens of billions. While regulatory and execution risks remain high, the strategic alignment of policy, resource needs, and valuation distortion sets the stage for potentially generational returns.
Previously, we have covered a bullish thesis on Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) by Intelligent_Okra5374 on the Value Investing Subreddit in April 2025, which operates in the same industry as Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK). Harmony Gold is a profitable, cash-generative gold producer with diversified assets and a strong balance sheet, benefiting from macro tailwinds in precious metals and expanding into copper for long-term growth.
