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Stocks This Week: It sounds sick, but Iran hostilities may be good for stocks

Stocks This Week: It sounds sick, but Iran hostilities may be good for stocks originally appeared on TheStreet.

So, President Trump ordered B-2 bombers to drop bunker-busting bombs on three Iranian nuclear facilities late Saturday. He pronounced the result "a spectacular success," with Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities "completely and totally obliterated."

There will be lots of media coverage Sunday and beyond about whether the operation worked and whether the U.S. will be dragged into a third war in the Middle East since 1991.

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A question for investors, however, is this: How will stocks react?

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There are some unknowns.

  • There's been no verification that Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities are, in fact, totally obliterated.

  • It's not clear whether Iran will try to cut a deal to stop the Israeli and U.S. bombing or opt somehow to play a long game of defending itself with missile shots at Israel and U.S. military bases in the Middle East.

Nonetheless, there's a good chance Wall Street will seize on the attacks as a prime stock-buying opportunity.

That's what happened in 2003's Second Gulf War when U.S.-led forces invaded Iraq and toppled the dictatorial regime of Saddam Hussein.

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Stocks started to tumble in late January 2003 as another war against Iraq became inevitable. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down as much as 9% for the year on March 11. But then investors started to believe the invasion would go well, and the S&P 500 started to recover.

Indeed, when Baghdad fell on April 9, 2003, the index had recovered all the early losses and was up 8.2% from the March low.

And stocks never looked back. The S&P 500 finished up 26.4% in 2023. The gain from the March 2003 low to year-end: 38%.

Troops making last-minute preparations for war in the desert of Kuwait, ahead of the Second Gulf War in March 2003. Mirrorpix/Getty Images

Troops making last-minute preparations for war in the desert of Kuwait, ahead of the Second Gulf War in March 2003. Mirrorpix/Getty Images

One will be able to see how investors and markets are looking at the conflict starting at 6 p.m. ET Sunday. That's when futures trading in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones industrials and the Nasdaq-100 starts.

Gains like 2003 might not happen. Iran was lobbing missiles at the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa into Sunday. And, so far, there's no hint that Iran's leadership wants a ceasefire.

A prolonged fight might be bad for stocks. Iran has missiles and drones to deploy. It could block off the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's crude oil is shipped.

Blocking the strait would send global oil prices sharply higher and cause havoc for the global economy.