Ricardo Pillai
6 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) on Substack by Greg ┃The Elevator Pitch. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on EOLS. Evolus, Inc. (EOLS)'s share was trading at $11.76 as of May 7th. EOLS’s forward P/E was 117.65 according to Yahoo Finance.
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Evolus has quickly positioned itself as a disruptive force in the global injectable aesthetics market, traditionally dominated by pharmaceutical giants like AbbVie and Galderma. The company’s flagship product, Jeuveau, has gained significant traction, capturing 13% of the U.S. neuromodulator market within just five years. Jeuveau's success can be attributed to its innovative go-to-market strategy, which combines pharmaceutical credibility with direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing techniques typically associated with the beauty industry. By offering Jeuveau at a price point approximately 20% below Botox, it has been able to resonate with a younger demographic, particularly those between the ages of 20 and 40. This pricing strategy, combined with a robust presence in over 16,000 medical practices—including a growing number of medical spas that lack strong brand loyalty—has made Jeuveau a popular alternative to Botox. This market acceptance has positioned Evolus favorably in the expanding U.S. injectables market, which is undergoing structural changes driven by greater societal acceptance, a wider demographic appeal, and an aging population with increasing disposable income.
The broader U.S. injectables market is seeing strong growth, with the popularity of non-invasive cosmetic procedures accelerating. The U.S. is expected to follow more mature markets like Korea, where injectables are already deeply embedded in cosmetic routines. This trend represents a significant growth opportunity for Evolus, which is now at a crucial inflection point in its business development. The company plans to diversify beyond neuromodulators with the upcoming launch of Evolysse, a premium line of dermal fillers developed in partnership with Symatese, the same formulation partner behind Galderma's Restylane. Evolus is seeking FDA approval for several aesthetic indications, including lip and cheek enhancement. This expansion into dermal fillers is expected to contribute approximately $200 million to Evolus’ revenue over time, further strengthening its position in the injectables space. Moreover, Evolus is adopting an innovative subscription-based model, “Club Evolus,” which offers customers quarterly treatments for a monthly fee. This model is designed to drive customer loyalty and predictable revenue streams, providing a clear path to sustained growth. With these initiatives in play, Evolus is targeting annual revenue growth of 25-27%, with projections aiming for $700 million in revenue by 2028, up from an estimated $266 million in 2024. If the company achieves these goals, it expects to reach positive cash flow by 2026.
