Skip to main content
NY Home homeNews home
Story

Uncertainty: worse than tariffs, better than decoupling

Eugenia Perozo

10 min read

Last week, over 5,000 delegates gathered in a sprawling convention centre just outside Washington DC to answer one question: is the US still the most attractive foreign direct investment (FDI) destination in the world?

The SelectUSA Investment Summit, established in 2007, is the US’s most important event to promote FDI. It gathers international businesses, industry leaders, economic development organisations and representatives from all US states. This year’s event, however, took place against the backdrop of a US-initiated trade war.

Many versions of the US’s current FDI standing emerged during the few days Investment Monitor was present at the event, but one thing was clear: the uncertainty brought on by tariffs is causing many businesses to pause, delay and hope for the best while some multinationals with long-term horizons double down.

The plenary sessions that featured industry leaders and government representatives mainly focused on the positive and were mostly attended by country delegations.

They discussed US President Donald Trump’s America’s First Investment Policy and pressed the suggestions that now is the “perfect time to be investing in the US” (Barbara Humpton, CEO of Siemens Corporation) and that “there’s never been a better time to select the US than now” (Ola Källenius, Mercedes-Benz Group CEO). Mercedes-Benz has increased production of some models in the US to counter the tariffs.

One of the very few statements on the main stage that alluded to the tariff mayhem of the past few months came from Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who acknowledged that “trade policy is creating a lot of stress in industries all across our economies.” When a moderator asked Hyundai CEO José Muñoz whether his company has increased production in the US because of tariffs (the “elephant in the room”, the moderator called them), Muñoz gave a long answer about how his industry’s time horizons are so long they do not make decisions based on “incentives that come and go.” Some of Hyundai’s moves, such as starting a tariff task force in April and shifting some of its production to the US from Mexico, suggest a different reality to Muñoz’s unfazed answer.

The rest of the Summit (except some smaller panels) took place downstairs, in the exhibition hall, where investment promotion agencies and other organisations from across the US had their own booths. Here, for the majority of people that Investment Monitor spoke to, there was no downplaying the difficulties that businesses are facing, given the rapid changes to trade policy. While many are still eager to engage with the US market, many feel the need for some level of predictability before fully committing.