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Why OpenAI and Microsoft’s AI partnership might be headed for a breakup

Chris Stokel-Walker

4 min read

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Microsoft has been one of OpenAI’s biggest backers over the past three years, as OpenAI’s flagship product, ChatGPT, has steadily embedded itself into our lives. But the multibillion-dollar relationship now appears to be on shaky ground, with rumors that OpenAI might file an antitrust complaint against the Windows-maker in an attempt to wriggle out of a longstanding agreement between the two companies.

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The relationship, which began with Microsoft’s $1 billion investment in OpenAI in 2019—and has since grown to include more than $10 billion in total funding—is built on Microsoft’s entitlement to 49% of OpenAI Global LLC’s profits, capped at roughly 10 times its investment.

For years, the partnership has remained stable. When Sam Altman was briefly ousted as OpenAI CEO in November 2023, Microsoft remained steadfast in its support of the company. But recent events appear to have strained the relationship—specifically, a new deal OpenAI has made.

OpenAI’s pending acquisition of AI coding startup Windsurf—valued at $3 billion—has pushed its partnership with Microsoft to the brink. Reports suggest that OpenAI executives have threatened an antitrust complaint if Microsoft insists on full access to Windsurf’s intellectual property after the deal closes. At the same time, Microsoft is reportedly uneasy about the prospect of OpenAI developing a competing Copilot product.

The two companies did issue a joint statement that conveyed a sense of harmony, though it acknowledged no agreement had been reached regarding Windsurf. “We have a long-term, productive partnership that has delivered amazing AI tools for everyone,” the companies said. “Talks are ongoing and we are optimistic we will continue to build together for years to come.”

Experts warn that OpenAI should think twice before following through on its reported threats. “Siccing the antitrust cops on your rivals may feel very satisfying, but that strategy usually boomerangs back on the complaining company when they themselves get big and successful,” says Adam Kovacevich, founder and CEO of the Chamber of Progress, a tech industry coalition.

Kovacevich argues that such internal disputes may grab headlines but ultimately distract from the broader goals. “OpenAI and Microsoft are locked in a pretty intense AI competition with Google, Anthropic, and Meta, and these kind of governance disputes are ultimately a huge distraction from trying to win on the technology front,” he says.