Editor OilPrice.com
4 min read
Via Metal Miner
The Renewables MMI (Monthly Metals Index) moved sideways, rising a slight 2.83%. Metals prices, including those for copper, steel, lithium and cobalt, have seen significant swings in recent weeks as U.S. companies scramble to source material before tariffs are imposed. For instance, U.S. copper prices surged in Q1 as buyers raced ahead of potential import restrictions, only to tumble in early April when China retaliated with steep tariffs on U.S. goods.
Trading data shows U.S. copper futures plunged 14% in a week, briefly dropping below $9,000/ton on the LME. The volatility reflects a classic import-arbitrage play. According to Reuters, with U.S. prices running about $756/ton above global benchmarks, U.S. inventories could jump once actual duties kick in. For now, copper’s short-term trajectory is down from its March peak as tariffs lifted pressure on buyers.
The steel sector shows a milder correction. Tariff anxiety earlier this year sent U.S. hot-rolled and plate prices to multi-year highs, but they had leveled off by early April. One market report noted that U.S. hot-rolled coil slid from its March peak (about $920/st) while steel-plate bids came off the boil. Meanwhile, domestic lead times for mills are already shrinking from the chaotic early-March rush, suggesting short-term demand has softened.
Still, American steelmakers remain in a tight spot as “reciprocal” tariffs announced for April 4 left already-protected items like steel and aluminum under the old 25% levies.
Battery metals tell a mixed story. After surging last year, lithium prices remain under heavy pressure. S&P Global notes that a flood of new spodumene output and high inventory levels are driving an unprecedented oversupply. In fact, new mine projects and the restarting of operations in China sent lithium carbonate and hydroxide quotes lower throughout Q1.
S&P forecasts further downward pressure into Q2 2025. This glut has knocked lithium to nearly three-year lows on some Asian indexes, raising questions about whether this is a reset or a longer-term trend.
Cobalt prices have been equally volatile as a year of oversupply pushed prices to nine-year lows in January. In late February, the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed a surprise four-month export pause. Cobalt immediately spiked about 40% through March, closing Q1 around $34,000/ton, but the disruption has left the market on edge throughout May.
Reports indicate that few traders expect the rally to last once Congolese shipments resume. Still, Q1’s rush shows how sensitive cobalt is to geopolitical shifts even as longer-term demand for EV batteries and grid storage continues to grow.
