Summary

According to our analysis of market returns since 1980, June is not one of the better months for stocks. On average, equity investors in June barely eke out a 0.3% positive return for the month -- better than only the weakest months of February, August, and September. The winning percentage is 62%, higher than only the 3Q summer months. We note that market returns in June have exceeded 5% only three times in the past 37 years: a 5.4% increase in 1999, a 6.9% gain in 2019, and a 6.3% pop in 2023. Last year wasn't bad, up 4.4%. Clunkers? We have seen a few, including 2008 (-8.6%), 2002 (-7.2%), 2010 (-6.1%), and 1991 (-4.8%). June is typically a quiet month for earnings, as the second quarter draws to a close. But don't be surprised by fireworks on the economic, interest rate, and inflation fronts. On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls report will be watched closely to determine the strength of the employment environment and thus the consumer segments of the economy. Our forecast is for a solid 140,000 new jobs, down from last month's total of 177,000 new jobs but still supportive of economic growth. The Federal Reserve meets and is not yet expected by the market to lower the federal funds rate from the current cycle highs, but ma