Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) on Possible_Crow606’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RELY. Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY)'s share was trading at $20.06 as of 11th June.
A customer using a mobile app at home to securely transfer money.
Remitly operates at the intersection of a massive $1 trillion global remittance industry and a digital transformation that still has significant runway. Only half of global remittances have shifted to digital, and Remitly is well-positioned to benefit from this ongoing transition with a user-friendly interface and pricing that undercuts legacy providers.
While the service appears simple, the operational complexity required to deliver fast, flexible, and reliable transfers—especially across cash-based markets—builds a moat not immediately apparent. That complexity is driving impressive growth: active customers surged from under 1 million to 8 million over five years, while remittance volume jumped from $7 billion in 2019 to $59 billion in the last twelve months. This scale enables reinvestment into product and marketing, creating a positive feedback loop of improved retention and organic growth, especially via word-of-mouth in tightly-knit user communities.
At a $3.6 billion enterprise value and a stock price of $19.96, Remitly is expected to generate over $900 million in gross profit this year. While that profit is currently reinvested into growth, margin expansion is likely as spending normalizes. With 20% annual volume growth—well below its 40% historical CAGR—Remitly could reach $500 million in EBIT by 2029, implying a 7.2x EV/EBIT multiple and a compelling return.
Regulatory concerns like a 3.5% remittance tax seem overblown and may even accelerate digital adoption. Competitors like Wise serve different corridors and use cases, and crypto alternatives remain impractical for Remitly’s core user base. Overall, the risk/reward at current levels looks highly attractive.
Previously, we highlighted a bullish thesis on Remitly (RELY) by LongTermValue Research in April 2025, emphasizing its operating leverage, rapid growth, and scalable remittance platform. The stock price has depreciated by roughly 6%, mostly due to a 3.5% remittance tax mentioned in this article by Possible_Crow606. Both view RELY as a high-conviction GARP opportunity with asymmetric upside in a fragmented, under-digitized $1T+ market.
Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 46 hedge fund portfolios held RELY at the end of the first quarter which was 35 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of RELY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
