Todd Maiden
4 min read
In This Article:
April was a mixed bag, with freight rates moving higher year over year but volumes staying pressured, according to monthly data from Cass Information Systems. Both datasets did see improvement from March but the outlook remains murky.
Cass’ shipments index increased 0.4% in April from March (0.3% higher seasonally adjusted) but was off 3.6% y/y. The y/y decline was the smallest this year. The last positive y/y reading was January 2023.
The shipments index was off 7.5% on a two-year-stacked comparison.
April 2025
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index
Carriers recently noted that some shippers pulled forward goods ahead of tariffs during the first quarter while others have taken a wait-and-see approach on inventory. Rapidly changing trade policy disrupted normal seasonal freight flows in the quarter and sowed additional doubt into the ultimate duration of an already-protracted freight recession.
Most carriers reacted by reeling in full-year 2025 outlooks or suspending earnings guidance altogether. While uncertainty around demand remains a headwind, carriers have responded by expanding cost savings and equipment utilization initiatives already in place.
“The trade war is having a variety of effects on freight volumes, with significant decreases likely in May and June in international volumes, but likely a rebound in Q3 due to the recent 90-day U.S./China trade deal,” the Cass report said. “Meanwhile, U.S. consumers are still largely buying pre-tariff goods, though retailers will soon start to run out of these.”
Landstar System (NASDAQ: LSTR) was the last truck transportation provider to report first-quarter results. The freight broker said Tuesday that loads hauled by truck trended modestly below normal seasonality in April but that revenue per load was slightly better than historical sequential trends. However, it concluded that the second quarter is unlikely to produce the normal seasonal lift.
The Cass report said that if normal seasonality does occur in May, the shipments index would be off 1% y/y.
Somewhat counterintuitively, rates are holding an upward trend.
Truckload carriers were able to capture low- to mid-single-digit contractual increases in the first quarter despite the muddled volume outlook. Carrier failures and asset rationalization have somewhat curbed capacity.
Also, carriers said shippers see the end of the three-year freight recession coming sooner rather than later, which is shaping decision making and creating a willingness among shippers to accept rate increases to maintain alliances with well-capitalized, service-oriented providers.
