Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) on Make Money, Make Time’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FSLR. First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)'s share was trading at $159.37 as of 3rd June. FSLR’s trailing and forward P/E were 13.54 and 10.24 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A field of well-maintained solar panels reflecting the sunlight.
First Solar (FSLR), a vertically integrated U.S.-based solar technology firm, stands out in a global industry dominated by crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules largely produced in China. Leveraging its cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology, which is more cost-effective per watt and performs better in hot, humid climates, FSLR has carved out a unique niche. With 58% of its manufacturing footprint in the U.S. and the rest in Malaysia, Vietnam, and India, it benefits from favorable U.S. industrial policy amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
Unlike residential-focused peers like Enphase or SolarEdge, FSLR targets utility-scale developers and independent power producers, creating more stable and less cyclical revenue streams. However, recent U.S. tariffs on Asian imports have disrupted FSLR’s overseas production economics, forcing strategic shifts, especially in India, where it now redirects 50% of production to meet local demand—an emerging opportunity buoyed by India’s own “Make in India” push.
Despite tariff-related margin pressures and volatile revenue growth, FSLR’s long-term prospects are anchored in accelerating solar demand, driven by data center energy needs and ESG mandates from hyperscalers like Google and Amazon. The company’s strong U.S. positioning and its monopoly in CdTe modules suggest significant upside.
With a projected 15% CAGR revenue growth and 45% EBITDA margins, conservative forecasts place its FY2027 EBITDA at $3.195B, implying a potential enterprise value of ~$32B at a modest 10x multiple—an 80% increase from current levels. Trading at 7.5x EV/EBITDA, FSLR is attractively priced relative to peers, presenting a compelling 2x return potential with high-margin, differentiated technology and strong tailwinds.
Previously, we have covered First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) in Mar 2025 wherein we summarized a bullish thesis by Long-Term Pick on Substack where in the thesis revolved around projected sharp 2025 earnings growth and long-term upside from U.S. expansion and clean energy tailwinds—validated by a 17% stock gain. The updated thesis reinforces this view, emphasizing FSLR’s CdTe edge, U.S.-centric manufacturing moat, and utility-scale focus amid rising solar demand, with a 2x return potential still in play.
