Cesar Marconetti

Tue, Jun 24, 2025, 8:01 AM4 min read

Europe’s gas storage remained below average, leaving the United Kingdom’s system more exposed. Also a heatwave in the eastern U.S. boosted LNG competition globally, but UK gas demand stayed moderate thanks to local renewables.

There are three key catalysts to consider right now:

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1. Norway has had unplanned outages and capacity cuts in its gas fields and European Union and United Kingdom storage has been at lower levels.

2. Demand is more moderate because temperatures are warm, but not extreme.

3. Middle East conflict has pushed prices upward.

Natural gas prices are technically in an uptrend quoting above the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs on a daily chart. It has closed the gap opened on April 2. The upward march started on June 12 seems to struggle to break the 100 mark. Long traders can use the 10 EMA as a dynamic stop loss. This move may be losing steam at this point. The 14-day RSI marks 62.99 and looks ready for a short-term pullback.  

European production remains solid with limited carryout from the previous crop, supporting current prices.

Here are the key catalysts to watch:

1. While Black Sea exports remain stable, persistent dryness in the region could slow future exports.

2. The European Union is forecasting maize production around 63.8Mt for 2025/26, up 7% from last year and above the 5-year average.

3. Firm animal feed demand in Europe is helping buoy prices.

These points support a bearish view for European corn prices, but this has already been the case since last February.

European Corn has made an impressive rally in the last four sessions but is now hitting the 50 EMA which is a strong dynamic resistance level. This resistance has not been broken since Feb. 28 and it is the fifth time it is under test. In the short term, the bias favors the shorts. In the long term, look for a breakout above the 50 EMA.

Here are the key catalysts to watch:

1. Operating rates across European primary smelters held steady at about 87%, indicating consistent supply.

2. Conflict in the Middle East increased prices in European energy markets, which has supported aluminum prices. This is because electricity is a major input for aluminum smelting and represents about 40% of production costs.

3. Industrial appetite has remained muted amid a seasonal slowdown in Europe.