TipRanks
4 min read
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Cryptoeconomy enabler Coinbase Global (COIN) rallied 16% over the past five days to celebrate its public listing on the S&P 500 index, scheduled for next week.
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Coinbase’s addition to the S&P 500 marks a historic milestone as the first cryptocurrency exchange included in the index, symbolizing a step toward mainstream acceptance of crypto. This move is expected to boost institutional interest and attract new capital, especially through passive funds that must buy S&P 500 components, effectively making Coinbase and, by extension, Bitcoin (BTC), a “must-own” investment.
However, while rosy developments are nice to see for existing shareholders, I remain neutral on the stock due to risks like potential overvaluation, declining earnings, revenue concentration, and increasing competition.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, who holds a Buy rating on Coinbase, estimates that its inclusion in the S&P 500 could attract approximately $16 billion in passive and active fund inflows, potentially boosting the stock further. However, with Coinbase’s market capitalization already having surged by $10 billion, much of this anticipated inflow may be priced in. The focus now shifts to the company’s underlying fundamentals.
Coinbase earns revenue through transactions, subscriptions, and services, mostly coming from transaction fees such as spreads and retail trading fees. In its Q1 2025 earnings report published earlier this month, Coinbase saw a 10% decline in trading volume, leading to total revenue of $2 billion—a 10% drop quarter-over-quarter—and transaction revenue falling 19% quarter-over-quarter to $1.3 billion.
The company attributed this decline to crypto market volatility and ongoing uncertainty. Ultimately, much of Coinbase’s performance remains closely linked to the health and activity of the cryptocurrency market.
Widespread adoption of cryptocurrency will inevitably require government involvement. Crypto enthusiasts hoped President Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies, would help legitimize the space. However, meaningful legislation has yet to materialize, and Trump’s so-called “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” which doesn’t involve actual cryptocurrency purchases, fell short of expectations.
