Jing Pan

Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:05 AM7 min read

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President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have sent shockwaves across the globe, as he attempts to rein in the massive trade deficits the U.S. has with other nations.

While many economists have criticized Trump’s blunt approach — and markets have reacted poorly — the issue he’s targeting is far from trivial. While the president has since gone back and forth on levying the tariffs, legendary investor Warren Buffett has been sounding the alarm on America’s growing trade deficit for decades.

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Back in 2003, Buffett wrote a Fortune article with the striking title: “America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling The Nation Out From Under Us. Here's A Way To Fix The Problem — And We Need To Do It Now.” In it, he issued a stark warning about the long-term risks of persistent trade imbalances.

A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports. While that might sound harmless, Buffett warned that over time it leads to something far more serious: a steady transfer of national wealth to foreign hands.

To drive the point home, he introduced a parable involving two fictional islands: Thriftville, whose industrious citizens produce more than they consume and export the surplus, and Squanderville, whose inhabitants consume more than they produce, financing their excess consumption by issuing IOUs to Thriftville.

Over time, Thriftville accumulates substantial claims on Squanderville's future output, leading to a scenario where Squanderville's citizens must work harder just to repay the debt, effectively becoming economically subservient to Thriftville.

Buffett took the analogy further, warning that Thriftville’s citizens might lose faith in Squanderville’s IOUs.

“Just how good, they ask, are the IOUs of a shiftless island?” Buffett wrote.

“So the Thrifts change strategy: Though they continue to hold some bonds, they sell most of them to Squanderville residents for Squanderbucks and use the proceeds to buy Squanderville land. And eventually the Thrifts own all of Squanderville.”