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Tesla (TSLA) stock sank Tuesday morning as Elon Musk again traded blows with President Trump while a bearish JPMorgan note warned of potentially weak second quarter deliveries.
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated his $115 price target on the stock — the lowest among major analysts and roughly 65% below Tesla's current trading levels, according to Yahoo Finance data. Tesla shares closed Friday at around $323.
"Based on our checks, the softer demand for Tesla vehicles evident in 1Q results appears to have continued into 2Q," Brinkman wrote. The analyst cited ongoing weakness in Europe, slowing momentum in China, and the potential early expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit as near-term risks.
Tesla stock is down 5% on Tuesday and 20% year to date.
Read more about Tesla's stock moves and today's market action.
Brinkman slashed his delivery and earnings estimates. He now expects Tesla to deliver just 360,000 vehicles in Q2, down from his prior estimate of 395,000 and well below Bloomberg's consensus of 392,000. That would represent a 19% year-over-year decline. Even with the cheaper models expected later this year, Brinkman warned that early-stage production would likely limit any volume upside.
He also trimmed his Q2 earnings-per-share forecast to $0.42 from $0.48, below consensus expectations of $0.45. Full-year 2025 EPS is now pegged at $1.75, down from $2.07 and under the Street's $1.87 estimate.
JPMorgan's new estimate aligns with a broader multiquarter downtrend in EPS estimates, per Yahoo Finance data. Brinkman also flagged the risk that full-year delivery projections, which assume a sharp second-half rebound, are overly optimistic. Tesla would need to deliver 922,000 vehicles in the second half of 2025 to hit consensus estimates, a 32% jump from the first half.
During Q1, Tesla delivered just 336,681 vehicles, its worst showing since Q2 2022. The decline reflects persistent weakness in key markets. New car sales in Europe, for example, have fallen for five consecutive months, dropping nearly 28% year over year in May.
Read more: How to avoid Tesla car insurance sticker shock
Deutsche Bank offered a more tempered view. The firm now expects Q2 deliveries to come in at 355,000, down from a prior 385,000 estimate.
"We expect Tesla's 2Q25 deliveries to miss ... but this shouldn't come as a surprise," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. They cited steep declines in Europe due to brand damage and rising competition, flattish results in China, and modest sequential growth in North America, helped by the Model Y Juniper ramp-up. The firm reiterated a Buy rating with a $345 price target.
