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US stock futures climbed on Monday amid signs of progress in trade talks, setting up the major gauges for more all-time highs to end one of the most volatile first halves of a year in recent memory.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) rose roughly 0.6%, or well over 200 points. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) moved up about 0.5%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) jumped 0.6%.
Stocks are poised to start a holiday-shortened week with fresh records in sight, as hopes rise that the US and its top trading partners are closing in on deals over the sweeping tariffs introduced by President Trump.
Canada scrapped a digital services tax targeting US tech companies late on Sunday — just hours before it was set to start collecting payments — in a bid to revive stalled trade negotiations. On Friday, Trump called an abrupt halt to the talks over the tax, describing them as a "blatant attack" on the US.
Despite a temporary turn lower, all three major indexes closed higher on Friday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) clinched new record highs for the first time since February — the start of the year's tariff-fueled stock swings.
The easing in odds of a global trade war comes as a July 9 deadline looms for the resumption of sweeping US "reciprocal" tariffs, which Trump on Sunday said he didn't think he'd need to extend. So far, his administration has hammered only two accords — not full-blown agreements — with China and the UK, as the British tariff deal went into effect on Monday.
Trump tariffs: Read the latest here
Meanwhile, market watchers are closely following Senate negotiations over Trump’s proposed $4.5 trillion tax cut bill, as Republican leaders race to persuade party holdouts to back the legislation. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it would add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over a decade, as it stands. The Senate is set to vote on dozens of amendments in a marathon session on Monday.
Looking ahead, the June jobs report on Thursday will be a highlight, as markets increasingly grow optimistic that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates soon. But the week's trading will be cut short, as markets will close at 1 p.m. on Thursday and remain shut on Friday for the Fourth of July holiday.
LIVE 8 updates
‘Fog in the data’: Soaring stocks face lingering uncertainty in second half
Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports:
Good morning. Here's what's happening today.
A crucial jobs report meets a stock market at all-time highs
Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer lays out what investors should know about the week ahead:
Trending tickers: HPE, Palantir and Juniper
Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading:
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) stock rose 6% in premarket trading on Monday following the news that HPE and Juniper Networks have reached an agreement with the US Department of Justice that it will not challenge HPE's acquisition of Juniper.
Palantir (PLTR) stock rose 5% before the bell and are trading at an all-time high, up 90% this year. Yahoo Finance Anchor Julie Hyman recently broke down the stock's history on a episode of Market Domination Overtime:
Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR) stock rose 8% premarket after the DOJ said it would not pursue an investigation into HPE's acquisition of Juniper.
Goldman: US profit margins face key risk from tariffs
As earning season approaches, Goldman Sachs (GS) said on Monday that US profit margins will be tested as investors await to see how President Trump's war has hurt companies.
Goldman's David Kostin said Q2 earnings will show the immediate impact of tariffs, which have risen about 10% this year. Most costs will be passed on to consumers, but margins will suffer if firms absorb more than expected.
Early results are mixed: General Mills (GIS) stock fell 5% last week due to a weak forecast and tariff warning, while Nike (NKE) rose 15% after announcing it will offset higher duties.
Bloomberg News reports:
European markets are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore
European stocks outperformed their US peers by the biggest margin on record in dollar terms during the first half. It's a dramatic sign of how the region’s markets are staging a comeback after more than a decade in the doldrums.
Bloomberg reports:
Canada scraps tax targeting US techs to revive trade talks
Canada has scrapped its planned digital services tax on US tech firms late on Sunday, just hours before it was due to come into effect.
The move aims to revive stalled trade talks with the US, which President Trump suddenly halted on Friday over the tax, calling it a "blatant attack" on American tech companies.
US stock futures rose as investors welcomed the news. Benchmark stock indexes in Tokyo and Shanghai also moved higher amid optimism that the US and its top trading partners can hammer out trade deals.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump now plan to reach a deal by July 21, Canada's finance ministry said.
Trump warned on Friday that he would set new tariffs on Canadian goods within a week, risking fresh tension between the two countries.
The White House has set a July 9 deadline for trading partners to broker deals with the US over the sweeping 'reciprocal' tariff rates announced in early April.
The 3% tech tax would have hit firms like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) starting on Monday. Canada will now bring forward legislation to cancel the tax.
"The DST was announced in 2020 to address the fact that many large technology companies operating in Canada may not otherwise pay tax on revenues generated from Canadians," a statement from the Canadian finance ministry said. "Canada’s preference has always been a multilateral agreement related to digital services taxation."
Oil falls with OPEC+ set to increase production
Oil prices fell overnight Sunday as global markets adjusted to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, in combination with a commitment from OPEC+ to increase supply in August.
Reuters reports:
