Summary

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has dropped to the bottom of its recent range in the $85 region -- and for the third time since early this year, is trying to hold. Besides price still being bearish, most technical indicators also remain negative. This includes daily momentum, which has been in bearish territory since September 2024; intermediate- to long-term moving averages, which are all heading lower and remain above price; and the Vortex indicator, which has been mostly bearish since September of last year. If yesterday's bounce continues, we will have a decent looking bullish momentum divergence on the daily chart. There is a lot of technical resistance overhead, so it's possible that any strength in the near-term will be sold. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) completed what we believe is a five-wave, parabolic, blow-off top, and could see some decent downside in the months to come. The advance from April 9 through April 21 was quite steep, reminiscent of wave five in an asymptotic move. The market then saw an ugly bearish cloud-cover reversal on massive volume, also common after a parabolic move. It certainly looks like GLD benefited from a weak U.S. Dollar Index, starting in January.