Joy Wiltermuth

Sun, Jun 1, 2025, 2:05 PM6 min read

The stock market enters June in the vicinity of record territory, right around where the year started, but with households now more wary about tariffs, the economy and their jobs.

The S&P 500 index SPX scored huge gains in May, which was its biggest monthly haul since November 2023. It closed out a whirlwind month less than 4% off its record close in February, while sailing through hazards that in more normal times could have sunk a fortune.

• My daughter’s boyfriend, a guest in my home, offered to powerwash part of my house — then demanded money

• What on Earth is going on with the American consumer?

• ‘The situation is extreme’: I’m 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will?

• ‘You never know what might happen’: How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn’t get his hands on my daughter’s inheritance?

• My father-in-law has dementia and is moving in with us. Can we invoice him for a caregiver?

The U.S. and U.K. kicked things off with a May 8 trade agreement that included 10% tariffs on many imports of U.K. goods. The U.S. and China next met in Geneva in mid-May, where on May 12 tit-for-tat tariffs were paused. Stocks roared higher.

President Donald Trump on May 23 then lobbed a quick 50% tariff threat on goods from the European Union. Stocks came down a notch, investors responded by buying the dip, on a hunch those tariffs wouldn’t emerge — and they too were quickly paused.

Stocks rounded out the month on higher ground even through a federal court ruling on May 28 invalidated most of Trumps tariffs. That ruling in less than 24 hours was paused to allow the administration’s appeal to play out. Finally, the month ended with Trump blasting China on May 30, claiming aspects of the partial tariff pause were being violated, while the White House also doubling tariffs on all steel imports to 50%.

“We’ve had quite a decent run over the last couple of weeks,” Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise’s chief market strategist, told MarketWatch. Stock valuations may look “a little stretched” relative to history, but he said investors no longer appear to fear the worst-case scenario on tariffs.

What’s priced into stocks is U.S. tariffs on imports will settle around 10% for much of the world, and 30% for China, he said. “If that level is maintained — and we don’t see it get worse than that — the markets have correctly rebounded, because companies can manage that environment,” he said. “The impacts of inflation will be less draconian, and growth can remain positive.”

“But you just don’t know if that’s going to be the real rules of the road,” Saglimbene said.