Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
We came across a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) on Chit Chat Stock’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASTS. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)'s share was trading at $28.69 as of 4th June according to Yahoo Finance.
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AST SpaceMobile may look like a speculative pre-revenue venture—born from a SPAC merger, marked by high cash burn, and facing the daunting challenge of launching massive satellites before it can generate meaningful revenue. On the surface, it lacks the hallmarks of a traditional value investment.
Yet, sharp investors like Ryan O’Connor of Crossroads Capital and Toan from 10West Advisors argue that dismissing the stock outright may overlook a compelling asymmetric opportunity. Both have strong track records—O’Connor with Nintendo in 2018, and Toan anticipating Tesla’s inflection that same year—and they see AST as a company with the potential to revolutionize the satellite internet space.
The core idea is that AST will offer high-speed broadband directly to standard mobile devices, eliminating the need for terminals —a leap that could revolutionize global telecommunications. This vision is supported by signed revenue-sharing agreements with major telecom providers, which not only validate the tech’s potential but also provide early demand signals.
These partnerships create competitive moats, making it difficult for rivals to catch up. Once the capital-intensive satellite infrastructure is operational and revenues scale, the underlying unit economics could prove highly attractive. While the risks remain high—execution, regulatory hurdles, and technical viability—the upside could be transformative if the model succeeds.
Even the most cautious observers might see this as a high-risk, high-reward bet worth monitoring, particularly given the credibility of the investors backing it. In a sector ripe for disruption, AST SpaceMobile offers a bold thesis with potentially far-reaching implications.
We previously covered a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) by Steve Wagner on Substack in November 2024, which emphasized financial risks, satellite deployment progress, and funding challenges. The thesis played out as the stock has seen a 23% appreciation in value. Chit Chat Stocks shares the long view but focuses more on the asymmetric upside, backing from notable investors, and the disruptive potential of ASTS’s direct-to-device tech.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 22 hedge fund portfolios held ASTS at the end of the first quarter which was 22 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ASTS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
