Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) on Substack by Oliver | MMMT Wealth. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TMDX. TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)'s share was trading at $130.49 as of 3rd June. TMDX’s trailing and forward P/E were 90.66and 69.93 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A doctor performing a living donor kidney transplant in a hospital operating room, emphasizing the importance of medical advancements.
TransMedics (TMDX) was founded by Dr. Waleed Hassanein, a former cardiothoracic surgeon who identified a critical gap in organ preservation technology. Rather than relying on traditional static cold storage—which leaves organs dormant and hard to assess—TMDX developed warm perfusion systems that keep organs alive and functioning outside the body. This breakthrough addresses the alarmingly low utilization rates of donated organs in the U.S., where more than 70% of hearts and lungs and nearly 30% of kidneys go unused.
TMDX’s core technology, the Organ Care System, not only extends preservation windows but also enables assessment and repair of organs before transplant, fundamentally shifting transplant logistics and outcomes.
The company’s National OCS Program has rapidly scaled, with 3,715 cases in the past year and management targeting 10,000 annually in the near term—eventually up to 30,000 with international expansion and new organ indications like kidneys and pancreas. TMDX earns ~61% of its revenue from OCS product sales and the remainder from full-service transplant logistics. Despite strong growth—revenues up 90–200% annually in recent years—the stock has pulled back from highs of $180 to around $95 due to temporary headwinds including a short report, aviation concerns, and slower growth.
However, TMDX retains an unmatched moat due to technological complexity, regulatory barriers, and its proprietary aviation fleet, which now ensures end-to-end control. Competitors like XVIVO and OrganOx lag in portability and breadth. Risks include regulation, operational complexity in aviation, clinical trial outcomes, and significant share dilution. Still, with first-mover advantage and dominance in a life-saving market, TMDX remains a high-conviction, long-term play.
We previously covered a bullish thesis on TransMedics (TMDX) by Oliver at MMMT Wealth in December 2024, when the stock traded at $66.25—now up ~97%. That thesis focused on near-term execution risks and valuation upside. The new thesis builds on this by emphasizing TMDX’s founder-led innovation, deep moat, and category-defining technology. While the first thesis highlights short-term growth and financials, the second reframes TMDX as a long-term leader in organ transplant logistics with unmatched infrastructure and medical relevance.
