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Morning Bid: Oil, rates and the dollar tumble

By Mike Dolan

LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets

After a tentative ceasefire was announced in the Middle East, U.S. crude, gold, Treasury yields and the dollar gave up all gains registered since Israel's initial attack on Iran on June 13.

Throughout this episode, energy market worries never amounted to a true 'shock' as movements of oil were largely unaffected. And given the large global supply overhang and slowing world demand, annual U.S. oil price gains never turned positive at any point over the past 12 days, failing even to set a new high for 2025.

I'll discuss all of today's market news below and then move away from the headlines to explain how plunging immigration and the graying of America may be impacting the Federal Reserve's view of the U.S. labor market.

Today's Market Minute

* Oil tumbled 4%, global shares surged and the dollar dropped on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was in place.

* However, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday he had ordered the military to strike Tehran after Iran fired missiles in violation of the ceasefire.

* Crude oil's sharp reversal of the Israel-Iran war premium shows the power of a few words from a key player to move the market, but ROI columnist Clyde Russell suggests the bigger issue here may be who played silent: Iran's allies.

* Investors globally appear to be gradually reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated assets, driving the greenback down to its lowest level in years. ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever explores where most of this selling is coming from.

* Rapid growth in the installation of batteries is upending power systems across the United States. ROI columnist Gavin Maguire outlines the key battery system trends to track.

Oil, rates and the dollar tumble

Iran's token response to U.S. bombing of its nuclear facilities over the weekend was a well-telegraphed missile launch on U.S. bases in Qatar. That was quickly followed by U.S. President Donald Trump's acknowledgement of Tehran's intent to de-escalate and a call for a ceasefire that Israel said it would abide by.

Whether that ceasefire will hold remains uncertain, with some exchanges between Iran and Israel reported this morning and the situation still tense.

But as it stands before Tuesday's U.S. open, crude is just $66 per barrel - $12 below Monday's peak - and just slightly up from a two-week low of $64.38 earlier in the session. In fact, Oil is now down almost 18% year-over-year.