John Paul Hampstead
6 min read
The U.S. truckload market has undergone significant transformation since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the industry experiencing dramatic swings in capacity, demand and pricing. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the truckload market found itself awash in excess capacity. This oversupply stemmed from a combination of factors, including the entry of new carriers during the pandemic-era freight boom and subsequent softening of demand as consumer spending patterns normalized. The oversupply situation was further complicated by volatile trade policies, with tariff rhetoric accelerating in early 2025 and creating uncertainty in import patterns.
As market conditions deteriorated, thousands of small- and midsize trucking carriers faced unsustainable economics, leading to widespread business failures and market exits. This natural, if painful, adjustment mechanism began to rebalance the supply-demand equation that had tilted heavily in shippers’ favor during the post-COVID era.
The exodus of carriers was driven by significant cost pressures. Publicly traded freight brokerage RXO noted in its quarterly market report that “the average cost to operate a truck is 34% higher over the past decade but absolute spot rates are largely the same as they were in 2014.” This economic reality made it increasingly difficult for carriers to maintain profitability, particularly smaller operators without the scale or financial resources to weather prolonged market weakness.
According to RXO, the truckload market “has remained relatively calm” with spot rates continuing to step higher despite disruption from rapidly changing tariff policies. The market has followed a trend – largely in place since 2023 – of soft freight demand, reductions in carrier capacity and gradually stabilizing rates.
The situation created what RXO described as “a difficult landscape for carriers,” with many “running with unsustainable unit economics.” This harsh operating environment accelerated the pace of carrier exits, despite “a couple of atypical months of operating authority growth in March and April.”
By mid-2025, the prolonged exodus of carriers finally brought the market closer to equilibrium. As RXO observed in its quarterly forecast, “We’re as close to equilibrium, in terms of carrier supply and shipper demand, as we’ve been in over two years.” The broker noted that “relatively speaking, the capacity situation is much more fragile than at this time last year.”
This newfound balance began manifesting in key market indicators. The national average Outbound Tender Rejection Index, which measures the percentage of tendered loads rejected by carriers, climbed to 6.67% by June 2025 – reaching the threshold where rejections start putting inflationary pressure on spot rates. Most enterprise shippers prefer to maintain tender acceptance percentages in the upper 90s, meaning many were already experiencing problematic service levels.
