Dean Best
6 min read
General Mills saw its shares close down more than 5% yesterday (25 June) after the Cheerios and Old El Paso maker booked another quarter of declining organic net sales – and put up a set of forecasts for its new financial year that were below Wall Street expectations.
It’s been a testing year for the US group. General Mills had already flagged the clouds the company saw on the horizon back in December when it lowered its forecasts for two key profit metrics amid an “uncertain macro-economic backdrop for consumers”.
Fast-forward three months and the Nature Valley snack bars owner cut its projections for adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS again after a fiscal third quarter when sales were “below expectations”. At that point, the group also lowered its forecast for its organic net sales, which it said would decline year on year.
In May, General Mills revealed a “global transformation” programme in a bid to boost productivity, suggesting the initiative will be accompanied by job cuts.
Yesterday, the group did indeed report falling net sales on an organic basis. Reported net sales dropped 2% and down by the same percentage organically after a 3% decline in the fourth quarter.
“As we head into fiscal ’26, we expect the operating environment will remain volatile, with consumers pressured by widespread uncertainty from tariffs, global conflicts and changing regulations,” General Mills chairman and CEO Jeff Harmening told analysts yesterday.
Central to the fall in General Mills’ share price was its guidance for its new financial year, which started on 26 May.
The Pillsbury brand owner expects its organic net sales to be within the range of a 1% decline and a 1% increase.
It is forecasting a 10-15% fall in both adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS (on a constant-currency basis) year on year.
According to Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard, the consensus among Wall Street analysts was for “roughly flat” organic net sales, a 7% drop in adjusted operating profit and a 5% decrease in adjusted EPS. Hardly a rosy outlook anyway but General Mills’ projections hit sentiment.
However, among the equity analysts covering General Mills there is an acknowledgement the company needs to invest to try to breathe fresh live into its sales. “[The] guide reinforces market concerns of increasing price competition as General Mills seeks to return to volume growth and, while not ideal, we believe it is pragmatic,” Mizuho Securities analyst John Baumgartner says. “Many centre-store categories have priced well ahead of household income growth amid inflation and feature everyday prices exceeding consumers’ buying power.”
