Anusuya Lahiri
3 min read
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Needham analyst Bernie McTernan reiterated its Hold rating on AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ:APP) on Wednesday.
AppLovin’s primary tool for future growth is Axon 2, which is an ad optimizer operating within the DSP that allows advertisers to place ads according to specified return thresholds.
In McTernan’s third AppLovin Ecommerce Tracker, the total number of websites in his sample using Axon grew by +3% compared to last month to 323, which includes 18 gross adds and 7 churns.
Also Read: AppLovin’s Rapid Ad Growth, AI Gains Drive Hike In Analyst Price Forecast
The seven churned websites were more than the one churn last month, the analyst noted. However, two of the seven companies shut down their businesses, he said in the analyst note.
McTernan said Apparel, Footwear & Accessories was the largest category gainer in the past month, with 10 gross adds and one churn.
The analyst noted that AppLovin announced in December that the company had 600 e-commerce brands and a $1 billion ad spend run rate.
Given the relatively modest growth and essentially unchanged pixel helper count, he does not believe self-service has launched yet.
McTernan noted one big brand add the Pixel this month, Reebok, which Authentic Brands Group, a private brand management company, owns. Press reports indicate Reebok does ~$5 billion in sales, which is in the bottom quartile for revenue among the 70 big brands he sampled. Authentic Brands Group combined for $32 billion+ of revenue, the analyst said. Some of the brands that added the Pixel include Champion, Juicy Couture, and Vince Camuto, he said.
Other brands ABG owns but not using the Pixel include Nautica, Aeropostale, Lucky, Brooks Brothers, Sperry, Spyder, Ted Baker, Forever 21, Hunter, McTernan noted.
As a reminder, the analyst noted that focusing on some of the larger brands in his dataset is essential as they have the most remarkable ability to scale advertising spending on the platform. He considered ~70 websites in his tracker big brands.
McTernan noted no change to AppLovin’s reported user count for the Axon pixel at 2k. The analyst noted that the user count crossed from 1k to 2k between February 28 and March 5, which he noted means the user count passed 1,500 that week.
AppLovin projected second-quarter revenue of $1.21 billion and EPS of $1.86.
Weighing in on AppLovin’s valuation, McTernan stated that the company’s valuation has become one of the most expensive within their coverage group. This surge is driven by heightened expectations for the company’s ability to further monetize its advertising platform through new verticals, he noted.
